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Busy Day: 11 NBA Games to Choose From Tonight

Sorry I couldn’t post earlier in the day but I slept through my alarm and had a busy day at work.  Luckily I got off early and now I can give you my picks.

ATL -4 (vs TOR)

Atlanta is a great December team, already 3-1 and 22-10 in the last 3 seasons.  They are also 4-1 this year against Atlantic division opponents and 6-3 against teams with a losing record.  Toronto, on the other hand, has a 3-season record of 14-23 in December.  They are 3-7 against teams with a winning record (31-57 in the last 3 seasons), and 2-6 against good offensive teams.

The Rockets-Sixers game looks appealing but like before I need to see 2 things happen before I play the Sixers: #1 see how A.I. adapts, #2 see the Sixers win a game (since they are now on an 10 or 11 game loss streak). Plus the Sixers are 4-0 ATS and SU vs the Houston in the last 3 seasons.

OKC +2 (vs MEM)

OKC-MEM OVER 199

My system is calling the Thunder on this one, but OK City’s situational stats are mixed for this season. They’re 1-3 on the road with a total between 1-3 but 7-5 as an underdog. 2-5 after a win by 10 or more points, but 6-4 against poor defensive teams. Memphis has some mixed signals as well: 6-3 at home, but 3-6 after allowing 105 points or more. The last time they had a 3 game win streak they lost their 4th, and they are just 14-28 in the last 3 seasons versus Northwest division opponents. In the last 3 seasons, these teams are split in their matchup 4-4.

The total is probably the stronger bet here as 6 of the last 8 have gone over between these two teams (and 3 of the last 4 in Memphis). My totals system is 8-1 in calling OK City totals this year. Memphis is 7-3 (O-U) against teams with a winning record, 4-0 in non-conference games, and 3-1 off an upset win.

CHA +7.5 (vs SA)

This one came as a surprise to me but it’s actually looking quite good. The Bobcats are coming off a huge upset over Denver and some see that as a reason to fade them.  However, they are 2-1 this year off an upset win (21-14 in the last 3 seasons), 4-1 off a win by 10 or more points (22-9 in last 3), and 2-0 after scoring 105 or more (20-15 in last 3). Probably the biggest surprise indicator, though, is San Antonio is 0-8 in the last 3 seasons versus good defensive teams (team who allow 91 or fewer points/game). The Spurs are also on a 5 game losing streak ATS. I understand if you are too nervous to take this though, as San Antonio has owned Charlotte in the past.  They are 3-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons and 8-2 since 1996 (9-1 SU).

So that’s all I have as of now.  I think that should suffice for NBA tonight.  I may have a college hoops pick later, so stay tuned in. You can always follow my RSS feed or follow me on Twitter to get my updates instantly.

And I Thought Today Was Going to Be Boring

With only 3 NBA games I didn’t think I’d be able to find many plays.  I ended up finding 5 plays, and while I didn’t go 100% like yesterday, I was still up on the day.  I went 3-2 overall, including 2-0 in my NCAAB picks!

The Celtics blew a 14 point first half lead and won the game by only 2 points.  Even though I lost that pick it was quite an exciting game to watch.  The Wizards went on a 20-6 tear to start the 3rd quarter, but then the Celtics fought back to end the 3rd quarter with a 13-4 streak. Unfortunately, the Wizards outscored the Celts by 7 in the 4th and ruined the Celtics’ spread.

We won’t even talk about my big miss in Salt Lake City.  I called it under 202, and the total ended up being 231. There were tons of cues to lead me away from that pick but I was stuck on my system.  Each time I lose a game, though, I try to find where it went wrong.  Sometimes there are straight upsets, other times you can see them coming.  I can learn from this mistake, which will only make me that much better.

Montana beat Loyola-Marymount, as expected.  Colorado and Colorado State made me nervous the first half by only totalling 62, but then they put it together in the 2nd half and ended up with 139 total points.

A lot of NBA games tomorrow.  They’ll have to wait until the morning though, so hold tight.

NCAAB Quick Add

COLORADO-CSU OVER 137

This isn’t based on my system but it just looked good to me.  Both teams are looking pretty good this year.  The Buffaloes are averaging 80 pts per game while allowing an average of 69, while the Rams are scoring an average of 70 and allowing 61.  Since 1997, these teams have been over 4 of 6 times.  The Buffs are 3-1 O-U this year, and while the Rams are 0-1 O-U this year, historically the have some strong indicators.  In the last 3 seasons: 6-3 (O-U) versus good offensive teams, 6-2 after allowing 60 pts or fewer, 4-2 in home games where the total is 135-139.5.  And since 1997: 8-2 in home games where total is 135-139.5, 8-2 against Big 12 teams, and 20-7 after allowing 60 points or fewer.

Today’s NCAAB Pick Plus One More NBA Pick

MONTANA (PK) (VS LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT)

The Montana Grizzlies are looking good this year. Although they are only 5-3 SU, one of those losses was to then #12 University of Washington, of whom they lost to by 4 (and had a lead of 2 with about 3 minutes to go). They already beat Loyola-Marymount once this year, admittedly by only a point and it was at home.  Keep in mind, however, this game was their third in three days at the end of a tournament.  The Lions actually had 3 chances to win at the end of the game (had 3 shots in the last 4 seconds) but none went in.  This is a good indicator of their ability to close out a game.  Maybe it was just luck (or unluck, for the Lions) or it could have been a result of choking under pressure.  Furthermore, The Lions are only 3-6 this year, and while they’re 5-3 ATS, they are 0-2 ATS at home. The 5-3 ATS Grizzlies are 2-1 on the road. They lead the series between these two teams 7-1, and are 2-0 at Loyola since 1997 (no games played at Loyola in the past 3 seasons).

As for my other NBA pick:

ORL-UTAH UNDER 202

Reason #1 for picking this game is my Totals System is 8-1 in picking Utah games, and 9-3 in picking Orlando games, and both are indicating under.  Also, the last time (and only time this year) they got blown out and had another game the next day, the Jazz were well under (11/3 Utah loses to Houston by 17, 11/4 Utah loses to Dallas and the game totals 181 (O/U was 203). The Jazz were embarrassed by the Lakers in the 4th quarter yesterday, and I don’t think the trip home to face Orlando will help their offense a whole lot. That’s my take anyway.

Getting a Jump on Thursday

I said in my previous post that nothing is looking good tomorrow.  Well, somehow I missed the Boston-Washington game (how could I miss it?  There are only 3 games being played!)

BOSTON -7.5 (VS WASHINGTON)

BOS-WAS OVER 193

On top of my system calling this game there are a few key indicators. First, the Wizards just aren’t doing well ATS this season.  They are 5-14 total, and 1-4 in their last five games.  And while Boston’s ATS record isn’t great at 10-11, that is mainly because they’re often spotted a huge double-digit spread. When just looking at their record in single-digit spreads, they are 7-4.  They are also currently on a 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The historical matchup is pretty close with Boston leading 4-3.  Washington is 2-1 in the last 3 seasons at home versus the Celtics, but the Celts have taken the last 3 meetings. The one disconcerting this I see is that Boston is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, but they only win if they edge out the Wizards in FG%, rebounds, and 3 pts. Whenever the Celtics even gave up one of those edges, the Wizards would win.  On paper, the Celts have the edge in FG% (50% vs 44%), and 3-pointers by 1.3, but the Wizards have the advantage of rebounds by almost 6 (off. and def.).

Cautious but Solid For Me (My System was On Fire Tonight!)

The good news is my system works great. Unfortunately, I was cautious in not playing the Hawks (double digit spread, the Blazers (injuries), the Sixers (A.I., 9 game losing streak), the Kings (back-to-back games), and the Bucks (back-to-back). My system accurately called all five of those games correctly, on top of the 3 I played and got right. THAT’S 8 – 0!  That doesn’t mean I feel stupid for not calling them (or that I’m going to try my luck at parlays again (though how sick would that have been to parlay all 8? I can dream if I want)) since I had legitimate reasons not to (plus you can’t get mad over money you didn’t even risk). It also doesn’t mean I’m going to recklessly call every game my system calls regardless of injuries, spreads, or situations. It just means I have even more faith in my system. And I’m not going to complain with a 3-0 day.

The Nets and Golden State easily fell under their 216 total, and didn’t even break 200. Houston had no problem beating the Cavs.  They ran up to a 15 point lead early in the first quarter and never looked back.  And the Broncos of Boise had no problem taking down the Bengals in Pocatello.

Not much in the way of NBA tomorrow.  Only three games.  I’ve only seen 2 lines out so far and they don’t look promising.  I’ll keep you up to date but I’m not going to give you guys a pick for the sake of making a pick.  It’ll have to be good for me to give it. Hopefully I can find a college game to play, at the very least.

Thanks for all of your support! I’m glad people are enjoying this, as I enjoy helping others.

Quick NCAAB Pick

BOISE STATE -1 (VS IDAHO STATE)

Idaho State is just not a good team.  Boise State isn’t one of the best, but in this matchup they are leagues beyond their opponent.  That may be a slight exaggeration, but they consistently beat up on the Bengals. ISU is 2-6 this year, averaging a -11.8 differential.  At least the Broncos have a winning record (4-3) with only a -1.3 diff. Boise state has won 12 of the last 14 matchups.

Only 2 Plays? That’s All You Need

You may have already noticed I’m cutting back on the number of potential plays I give out.  One reason I did so many to start with was to try and build some credibility with my system, the other reason was simply the thrill of calling games.  Now that I have learned that more plays does not equal more money (unless you’re talking about more money lost), I am beginning to focus on the few good plays when I find them and trying to get them right.

Normally I’d be able to give you 5-6 good plays today but I’m staying away from the Sixers, due to the return of A.I., staying away from the Blazers due to injuries, and staying away from the Kings because this is a back-to-back game for them.  I also have a new rule of not playing games with double-digit spreads (which knocks out any potential play on the Hawks and the Lakers).

Anyway, here are today’s NBA picks:

HOUSTON +2.5 (vs CLEVELAND)

Not only is my system calling for the Rockets to win, but a lot of stats are indicating that as well. Cleveland has a strong stat this season of being 7-0 against other teams with a winning record, but this time they’re facing Houston, who is 8-2 as an underdog this season. Since 1996, Houston leads the matchup between these two teams 15-8, and is 9-2 at home in the same time period.  Over the last 3 seasons, Houston is 3-1, and 2-0 at home (ATS). FYI, The total has gone under in 7 of their last 10 matchups in Houston and in 14 of 22 games overall since 1996.

GS-NJ UNDER 216

First, my O/U system is 7-1 this season in calling New Jersey games, and it’s saying under for this one. Second, the Nets have gone under in 14 of their 20 games this year.  Third, the Nets have gone under in 4 of their 5 back-to-back games.  Fourth, the Nets have gone under in 9 of the 12 games they’ve been in with good offensive teams (averaging 99+ points per game). And fifth, in the matchup between these two teams, 7 of their last 11 games in New Jersey have been under, and 2 of their last 2.

Tuesday Review

A pretty good day for me today. Overall I went 4-2.

Texas Tech beat TCU by 10 points, easily covering their -1 spread. Toronto let their spread slip in the 3rd quarter and only won by 6 points.  I did, however, go 2-1 with my O/U picks and actually had 2 more I was thinking about calling but didn’t because I didn’t feel I had enough data on those teams yet for a strong bet. Also, if you followed me on Twitter, you would have gotten my message to take Orlando at -2.5 in the 2nd half of their game. They ended up beating the Clippers by 5 in the second half. I would have posted it here but I didn’t quite have enough time.  Usually, though, I’ll do a quick post here as well (which you could get in your RSS feed if you subscribe).

I’ve been playing with my NBA system to try and get more picks at the given spreads and I’ve been getting good results back.  You should see the picks from this system very soon.  And they will be just as reliable, if not more so, than my previous picks.  I’m becoming more confident in my O/U system as well. Some of my teams are 80-90% accurate after 10 games in the system.

NBA Tuesday 12/8

A nice commenter on my blog names “Deepu,” told me I should stay away from teasers altogether, as they are money suckers and that is why Vegas love them.  Even though I’m 8-5 in my teasers (and would have been 9-4 if I was smart enough to realize the injuries on Portland’s team) and had a few times when buying points for a certain team was necessary, I’m not one to turn down advice from a wiser person.  I don’t know if I can abandon the teasers altogether because it allows me to play games with my system that it normally doesn’t like, but I will de-emphasize them.

Anyway, here are tonight’s picks:

TORONTO -7 (VS MINNESOTA)

This time I did check the injury report and found Bosh and Bargnani were sent home from practice the other day due to a head cold.  Rotowire.com reports they are both probable for tonight’s game but you may want to hold off on this pick until you have a better confirmation that they are playing. The Raptors have been up and down this year but after winning two in a row, they seem to be fixing a lot of their problems and working better together.  The two wins don’t indicate that but this quote does: “The last couple of games we saw everybody helping each other, everybody telling everybody if you make a mistake it doesn’t matter… Somebody will help you. It’s no problem at all.” That was from Jose Calderon.  Teams that help each other out, win games.  When teams win and they can pinpoint the major change, they usually are able to continue winning.  It helps too that they are playing the Timberwolves, whom they haven’t lost to since 2004 (9 games). (Note: Calderon was taken out of the game against Chicago due to a hip flexor injury but since they were already up by a lot in that game it is said to just be precautionary.  He is expected to play tonight).

And now for some O/Us:

MIL-BOS OVER 191

NJ-CHI OVER 192.5

ORL-LAC UNDER 194

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